A record number of ethnic minority MPs will be elected on 4 July, with an increase of at least 20 and as many as 30 more ethnic minority MPs taking seats in the Commons – the biggest increase ever – according to new analysis of final candidate selections by British Future.
With around 14% of MPs coming from an ethnic minority background, the new Parliament will be closer than ever before to reflecting the diversity of the electorate. Analysis of census data by Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics estimates that 14% of the UK electorate is from an ethnic minority background.
It also means that regardless of the party political result, the 2024 Parliament is set to be the UK’s most diverse ever. Minority representation will have increased from zero to nearly 1 in 7 MPs during PM Rishi Sunak’s lifetime – and in the space of Diane Abbott’s 40-year political career.
One in five Labour selections (19.8%) – 125 candidates – is from an ethnic minority background. The Conservative Party has selected 86 ethnic minority candidates, or 13.7% of its total selections. The Lib Dems have selected 66 ethnic minority candidates (10.5%); the SNP 3 out of 57 candidates (5.2%); Green Party 55 (8.9%) and Reform 32 (5.2%). Plaid Cymru in Wales and the UUP in Northern Ireland have each selected one candidate from an ethnic minority background.
British Future’s projections in different electoral scenarios
The Labour Party is set to have by far the largest number of ethnic minority MPs – projected to be 66 if the party wins an overall majority and up to 83 in a landslide scenario. If Labour wins an overall majority of one, some 20% of its new intake will be from an ethnic minority background. British Future’s analysis projects around 20 ethnic minority Conservative MPs.
Read the full analysis briefing here
Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, said:
“This election will see the biggest rise in ethnic minority representation and the most diverse Parliament ever. In the space of 40 years we’ll have gone from zero to 1 in 7 MPs being from an ethnic minority background.
“Britain is closing the gap between the diversity of Parliament and the electorate much faster than anyone thought possible.
“Better representation doesn’t in itself guarantee strong party cultures or the right party policies on inclusion. Our race debates today often feel as polarised as ever.
“But a stronger share of voice does make a difference. So this milestone in representation remains something to celebrate – few if any other western democracies are keeping pace with Britain’s progress.”
While Parliament’s ethnic diversity is set to increase significantly, progress in other areas is likely to be far slower. If Labour wins an overall majority, there will be a record number of 252 women elected to the Commons for the first time, up from 220 in 2019. That would mean less than 39% of MPs are women, while they make up 51% of the UK electorate. The advance towards equal representation remains sluggish, lacking the kind of game-changing shift that a ‘big change’ election such as this could provide.
Parliament will also remain very much the preserve of the middle classes, with most MPs drawn from white-collar professions. More attention will need to be given to addressing the barriers that stop people from a wider range of backgrounds standing for public office.
Jill Rutter, British Future Associate Fellow who led the analysis, said:
“A diverse parliament brings different perspectives to its work, which can lead to more effective policy-making. MPs who come from different backgrounds can be role models for their communities, inspiring young people to vote and get involved in politics.”
The 2024 General Election is set to be a ‘Big Change’ election. There are guaranteed to be at least 158 new MPs sitting in the House of Commons due to large numbers of retirements. That could rise to 288 if the Labour Party wins a majority of 100 or up to 368 – more than half the Commons – in a landslide scenario. This would be the largest post-war new intake to Parliament, potentially outstripping the 324 new MPs elected in 1945.
Ethnic minority candidates likely to become MPs include Ben Obese-Jecty, standing in John Major’s former Huntingdon constituency for the Conservatives. He works in the City of London and is a former army officer, one of a number of candidates who have served in the armed forces. If Labour wins a large majority, Obese-Jecty will be joined in parliament by Bayo Alaba, standing in Southend East and Rochford. He is a former Parachute regiment reservist, who now works in the events industry and is a Redbridge Councillor.
Local Sikh resident Gurinder Singh Josan stands in Smethwick, which returns as a constituency for the first time since it was abolished in 1974. This election coincides with the 60th anniversary of the infamous 1964 Smethwick contest, won with an overtly racist campaign against the national swing. Gurinder Singh Josan is a member of Labour’s NEC, which has been involved in recent selection controversies in the party, recently approving Diane Abbott’s candidacy after an internal row.
The Lib Dems’ Josh Barbarinde looks likely to win Eastbourne. Active in his local community and a former Eastbourne councillor, he has worked for the School of Social Entrepreneurs and for a number of social enterprises that support young offenders. He has also been active in the Liberal Democrats’ Racial Diversity Campaign, which recruits, trains and mentors ethnic minority candidates.
Ethnic minority Conservatives are on average more likely to hold the party’s hundred safest seats and this is one reason, along with new selections, why cross-party diversity stays high in all scenarios. Kemi Bandenoch defends a majority of over 27,000 in Saffron Walden; Priti Patel’s majority in Witham is 24,000; and Rishi Sunak himself in Richmond defends a majority of over 27,000.
The 2019 election saw 66 ethnic minority MPs elected to the Westminster parliament, a ‘diversity milestone’ as for the first time 10% of MPs were from an ethnic minority background. With 37 ethnic minority women elected, the 2019 parliament represented another first as ethnic minority women outnumbered men for the first time. That record looks set to be surpassed once again next year.
British Future calculated these projections using a simple universal swing model between the two major parties in Conservative-Labour marginal seats, mirroring this for Conservative-Lib Dem marginals. The seat ranking was based on the swing needed to win the seat from the 2019 general election result, adjusting this for boundary changes. Labour target seats were ranked from one to 126 with seats falling according to their arithmetic ranking, and Lib Dem target seats ranked from one to 20. For seat changes between other parties, we made indicative estimates of net gains and losses, broadly reflecting poll trends and current expectations.
Read the briefing, ‘Ethnic and gender diversity in the next parliament,’ here
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